Civil War in Iran? Let’s Hope It Doesn’t Go That Far.

Iranian supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi protest in Tehran, Iran
Iranian supporters of Mir Hossein Mousavi protest in Tehran, Iran

The American media is doing a pretty crappy job at covering one of the biggest news stories of the past couple of weeks. Iran’s 2009 Presidential Election was held on June 12, 2009, and since then, all hell has broken loose in a country that has had its fair share of unrest over the past 50 years. In the past few days, tens of thousands of protesters have taken to the streets of Tehran, Iran’s capital. What set them off? I’m glad you asked. [Disclaimer: I am not a historian or researcher, and I know very little about Iranian politics. However, I’m going to give this my best shot.]

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mohsen Rezaee, Mehdi Karroubi
2009 Iran Presidential Election Candidates: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mohsen Rezaee, Mehdi Karroubi

For just a little background context, the Presidential Election featured 4 nominees:

  • Incumbant: Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (Abadgaran Party)
  • Mir-Hossein Mousavi (Independent Reformist Party)
  • Mohsen Rezaee (Independent Conservative Party)
  • Mehdi Karroubi (Etemad-e-Melli Party)

On the night of June 12th, Iran’s official news agency, the Islamic Republic News Agency, announced that the incumbant, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, had won by a count of 66% to 33% of the votes cast. The problem was that at the time, only 2/3 of the votes had been counted. To make matters even worse, the president of Iran’s election monitoring commission declared the results invalid. Then he called for a do-over (source).  Today, Time Magazine published an article with 5 reason’s to suspect Iran’s election results (link). Furthermore, many are asking the simple question: How do you count almost 40 million handwritten paper ballots in a matter of hours and declare a winner? More on that here.

Obviously, something is up. The Whitehouse is remaining relatively neutral about the whole thing, though President Obama has issued a short statement about the Iran Election and the violent protesting in Tehran (link, video):

Obama said of the Iranian demonstrators that “the world is watching and inspired by their participation, regardless of what the ultimate outcome of the election was. We do believe the Iranian people and their voices should be heard.”

There is a ton of information out there, and I could go on with more and more coverage – because this thing is being broadcast on every major social network on the internet. Here are some of the links with fascinating, often troubling, updates of the events regarding the Presidential Election in Iran:

  • Boston.com’s photo gallery of the protests in Tehran (link)
  • AP News/MyWay update: Iranian protester killed after opposition rally (link)
  • Flickr.com has the AP picture of the protester who was kill. NSFW & Disturbing (link)
  • Twitter streams break Iran news dam (link)
  • Andrew Sullivan’s Blog on the Atlantic (link)

Well, I hope to have more updates in the next few days. I hope the Iranian people can work this out without more deaths. Things like this do not typically end well for many people. The country seems to be split in half, and maybe it’s worse than that. If anything is certain, it’s that the people of Iran have a voice, and it will be heard. By the whole world.

Flight 447 Victims Found Naked, Most Likely That Plane Broke Up Before Impact

According to an Air France probe (here), it turns out that many of the Air France Flight 447 victims have been found in the Atlantic Ocean with little or no clothing. The theory is that the wind likely caused the removal of their clothes. Combined with the fact that victims’ bodies have been found 53 miles apart, it’s becoming pretty obvious that the Airbus A330-200 plane broke up before hitting the water. Furthermore, nearly all of the victims’ bodies had multiple fractures, and none of them had water in their lungs. That pretty much rules out drowning. Based on the fact that none of the bodies have burn marks on them, a fire or an explosion was most likely not the cause of the crash.

Update (7-2-2009):

  • French: Air France Flight 447 fell intact into sea (Yahoo News)

Final Destination Experience For Passenger Who Missed Air France Flight 447

Holy crap. According to this article, a woman who was supposed to be on Air France Flight AF 447 — but missed the flight — was killed today in a car wreck in Austria:

An Italian woman has been killed in a car crash only days after she narrowly avoided being a victim of the Air France plane crash. Johanna Ganthaler missed the Air France flight which crashed into the Atlantic. Johanna Ganthaler and her husband Kurt were on holiday in Brazil and were supposed to take Air France flight 447 back to Paris. But they missed the doomed flight and decided to take a different flight home to Europe instead.

Mrs. Ganthaler and her husband were traveling in Kufstein, Austria when their car veered across a lane and swerved into an oncoming truck. Mr. Ganthaler survived the car wreck, but Johanna lost her life in the wreck.

The other day I saw a movie trailer for the next Final Destination movie. I think I’ll be skipping that movie. I do not enjoy it when life imitates art.

WHO Announces 2009 Swine Flu Pandemic – First Phase 6 Influenza Pandemic Since 1968

Dr. Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), announces 2009 Swine Flu Influenza Pandemic
Dr. Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), announces 2009 Swine Flu Influenza Pandemic

Today the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the first global flu pandemic of the 21st century (Reuters). This means that the current flu outbreak has reached Phase 6 on the Pandemic Scale. The WHO’s 2009 influenza pandemic announcement was made by Dr. Margaret Chan, Director-General of the World Health Organization (WHO), citing the rise of swine flu infections to nearly 30,000 cases in the United States, South America, Europe, Australia and elsewhere. Dr. Chan has her finger on the global pandemic alert button, and in her opinion a global outbreak of swine flu has begun. Here are some of Dr. Chan’s quotes from today’s announcement:

The world is now at the start of the 2009 influenza pandemic.

This particular H1N1 strain has not circulated previously in humans. The virus is entirely new.

The virus is contagious, spreading easily from one person to another, and from one country to another. As of today, nearly 30,000 confirmed cases have been reported in 74 countries.

Globally, we have good reason to believe that this pandemic, at least in its early days, will be of moderate severity. As we know from experience, severity can vary, depending on many factors, from one country to another.

I did not previously know that there were 6 phases in the Pandemic scale. Here is a breakdown of the Pandemic Phase system from the Flu Wiki:

Interpandemic period
Phase 1
No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. An influenza virus subtype that has caused human infection may be present in animals. If present in animals, the risk of human infection or disease is considered to be low.
Phase 2
No new influenza virus subtypes have been detected in humans. However, a circulating animal influenza virus subtype poses a substantial risk1 of human disease.

Pandemic alert period
Phase 3
Human infection(s) with a new subtype, but no human-to-human spread, or at most rare instances of spread to a close contact.
Phase 4
Small cluster(s) with limited human-to-human transmission but spread is highly localized, suggesting that the virus is not well adapted to humans.2
Phase 5
Larger cluster(s) but human-to-human spread still localized, suggesting that the virus is becoming increasingly better adapted to humans, but may not yet be fully transmissible (substantial pandemic risk).

Pandemic period
Phase 6
Pandemic: increased and sustained transmission in general population.

Postpandemic period
Return to interpandemic period.

Furthermore, the World Health Organization has a Phase 6 information page that describes Phase 6 in much more detail.

While the thought of a global pandemic is scary to me, Dr. Chan’s statement reiterated that this H1N1 swine flu virus is relatively moderate in severity. Only 2% of cases have caused severe illness, but those 2% of cases have been in adults, ages 30-50. These are adults in their prime! The flu typically causes severe illness in the elderly. To hear Dr. Chan say that this flu virus is causing severe illness in young adults is kinda scary.

Dr. Chan goes on to describe her concerns that this swine flu virus will continue to spread, but there are no plans to restrict travel and there are no plans to close borders. The most hope-filled part of the statement is the part where Dr. Chan says that the “production of vaccines for seasonal influenza will be completed soon, and that full capacity will be available to ensure the largest possible supply of pandemic vaccine in the months to come.” That is good news. Previously, everyone was frightened because this strain of flu was new, and there were no vaccines for it. Now it seems that there is a vaccine in production, and it will soon be available to those who need it.

Even with the good news, please take every precaution to avoid the swine flu. For more safety precautions and information about the Influenza A(H1N1) virus, please check out the World Health Organization’s website and their full coverage of the swine flu pandemic:

Flight AF 447 News: Terror Names Linked to Two Passengers on Air France Flight 447

Though terrorism was highly unlikely as a factor in the crash of Air France Flight AF 447, it was reported today that two of the passengers shared names with radical Islamic terrorists (source):

Soon after news of the fatal crash broke, agents working for the DGSE (Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure), the French equivalent of MI6, were dispatched to Brazil.

It was there that they established that two names on the passenger list are also on highly-classified documents listing the names of radical Muslims considered a threat to the French Republic.

Even though everyone is certain that computer malfuntions and severe weather were the main (and likely only) causes of the crash of Flight 447, the news that two of the passengers shared names with known terrorists is totally creepy.

France has received numerous threats from Islamic terrorist groups in recent months, especially since French troops were sent to fight in Afghanistan.

I can’t find any reports of France receiving terror threats recently, but I did post about Air France receiving a bomb threat 5 days before Flight 447 crashed. Was it terror? Probably not. It’s most likely a terrible coincidence. People tend to overlook coincidences like this, but the French government is taking this very seriously. And while I’m sick of terrorism in the news and things being blamed on terrorism, I hope the French government gets to the bottom of this. I sincerely hope that terrorism is ruled in the case of Flight AF 447.

Note: One of the reasons I hate the threat of terrorism is because there are so many conspiracy theorists out there who claim that terrorism is the threat that enables our governments to get away with anything and gain mass approval for their respective agendas. I really hope that terrorism does not get linked to some conspiracy theory about Flight AF 447. The fact that this terrible accident happened already makes me sad. Thinking that there was terrorism involved would make me more sad. Having to think that there is some conspiracy theory that somehow involves a terror threat – that would just make me downright depressed about the world we live in. Can’t we all just get along?

Brazil Military Finds Bodies of Air France Flight 447 Victims

Location of 2 Flight 447 Victims Found Today in Atlantic Ocean
Location of 2 Flight 447 Victims Found Today in Atlantic Ocean

The Brazil Air Force and Navy have found the bodies of 2 men from the Air France Flight 447. Along with the bodies, the Brazil Air Force and Navy reported recovering a wing fragment from the A330-200 Airbus, a blue aircraft seat, a leather bag containing an Air France ticket, and a backpack containing a vaccination card. For more, check out these articles:

  • Bloomberg.com (link)
  • Blog.SeattlePI.com (link)
  • FoxNews.com (link)
  • News.Yahoo.com (link)
  • USAToday.com (link)

Also, more information was released today about the final minute of Air France Flight AF 447 (source):

The Air France jet that crashed into the Atlantic sent out 24 automatic error messages in its final moments as its systems — including the autopilot — shut down, investigators said Saturday.

The director of the French air accident investigation agency, Paul-Louis Arslanian, said that it was impossible to tell from the signals whether the doomed crew had shut off the autopilot or whether it cut out.

Air France Flight 447 Conspiracy Theory

Actual Air France Airbus 330-200 of vanished Flight AF 447 (identified by registration number)
Actual Air France Airbus 330-200 of vanished Flight AF 447 (identified by registration number)

This story only seems to get stranger each day. From Day 1 of this horrific tragedy, I saw Flight 447 conspiracy theories being posted on websites all over the world. Here is a list of a few Flight AF 447 conspiracy theories I have seen (plus a few crazy one that I just made up to add to the craziness of the others):

  • UFO/Extraterrestrial spacecraft crashes into Flight AF 447
  • Aliens kidnap Air France Flight 447 passengers
  • Missile hits Flight 447 at cruising altitude
  • Bomb explodes on Flight AF 447 at 35,000 feet
  • Asteroids hit Flight 447 (but not just any asteroids – asteroids from the coming 2012 apocalypse predicted by the Mayans)
  • Flight 447 hijacked, re-routed, and landed in secrecy
  • AF 447 collides with government spy satellite
  • Flight 447 shot down with secret super laser weapon
  • Flight AF 447 disappears in marketing stunt ahead of television premiere the french version of LOST
  • Flight 447 crashed because Desmond didn’t enter the numbers (yet another LOST reference)
  • Humans from the future came back in time and have taken all the Flight 447 passengers back to the future for some unknown purpose
  • Air France Flight 447 flew into a opening in space-time and flew into another dimension
  • May 31, 2009 is 05-31-2009 which is 3+1+5=9  and 2+9=11. Thus, you get 9/11.
  • Flight AF 447 brought down to take out heir to Brazilian throne; a royal family connection
  • AF 447 brought down to increase military spending with European contractors

How crazy do those conspiracy theories sound? Yeah, some people are nuts. But today the story became even more mysterious as the Brazilian Air Force has retracted previous statements that the debris found in the Atlantic Ocean was from Flight AF 447. Now, the Brazilian Air Force is saying that much of the debris found in the Atlantic Ocean was NOT from Flight 447. Here are some quotes (source):

But today investigators said the wooden pallet and two buoys recovered was not from Flight 447, but just floating waste believed to be from a ship.

Earlier, investigators had also claimed to have spotted a plane seat and a seven-metre piece of fuselage floating in the ocean from search planes thousands of feet up.

They have not yet confirmed if those pieces of debris were from Flight 447 or not.

Cardoso said the fuel slicks detected in the area were ‘almost certainly from another passing vessel too.’

French investigators said no cause, including a terrorist bomb, had yet been ruled out.

Debris spotted about 340 miles (550 kilometres) northeast of Brazil’s northern Fernando de Noronha islands by the helicopter crew so far includes a 23-foot (seven-metre) chunk of plane, an airline seat, an oil slick and several large brown and yellow pieces that Cardoso said probably came from inside the plane.

WTF? Are you serious? Where is that plane?!!! Do these people really know anything about the debris they are finding?

To raise foul-play suspicions even more, French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said that despite evidence that suggests a bomb or explosion, they cannot discard the terrorism theory (source):

French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner, speaking Thursday in Rio de Janeiro where he attended a Mass honoring the crash victims, said experts had not found signs that would back up a “terrorism theory.”

“But we cannot discard that for now,” he told reporters. “Nothing leads us to believe that there was an explosion, but that doesn’t mean there wasn’t one.”

Wow. I guess we’ll be finding out more as the days go by. To me, it still looks like the most likely factors might have been the weather (violent turbulence, towering thunderstorms, lightning, severe wind speeds) or on-board systems malfunctioning (electrical, weather radar, interior sensors). Those theories appear much more reasonable. I can’t believe people are even suggesting bomb plots and UFOs. How odd. People love conspiracies. That’s for sure.

I sincerely hope they find that plane. People need closure. It’s 2009. We have some extremely advanced technologies. Why can’t we find this Flight AF 447?

Update (7-2-2009):

  • French: Air France Flight 447 fell intact into sea (Yahoo News)

Air France Flight 447 Theories: Weather-Related or Conspiracy?

Yesterday, I posted a few of the theories of the crash of Air France Flight AF 447. While everything seems to be pointing to a weather factors, the truth is that we still don’t know. We may never know. Here are some interesting news articles with more on Flight 447:

While AF 447 conspiracy theories abound, it is much more reasonable that violent turbulence and lightning caused multiple system failures on Air France Flight 447. I mean, seriously. It had to be weather related factors that caused the crash. The nypost.com article describing the final 14 minutes gives me the chills. Those people must have been terrified. Good bless them and their families.

One more thing: Why doesn’t the American military send out a nuclear sub to help find the black box. Nuclear subs are equipped with the most sensitive, sophisticated detection systems. It’s like radar on a fighter plane, but in acoustic form. They use these detection systems to locate/track the sound signatures of other submarines. Why can’t they use these systems to find a black box? In all likelihood, the black box from Flight 447 has been crushed and destroyed by water pressure. I read somewhere that water pressure in depths of 15,000-20,000 feet is close to 16,000 lbs per square inch. That would crush pretty much anything. But I’m going to keep a positive outlook. I really hope they find the black box.

Update: Air France Flight 447 Theories

Much has happened in the past 24 hours. Yesterday, news came out that the Brazilian Air Force had located debris that was likely from Air France Flight AF 447. The military planes spotted an airplane seat, a fuel slick and a pieces of white debris scattered over a 3 mile range in the mid-Atlantic Ocean. The debris was first spotted early Tuesday morning, and it was 35 miles apart. Defense Minister Nelson Jobim confirmed that the debris was that of Flight 447.

Efforts are being made to quickly locate and recover the flight’s black box, which will have further data regarding the plane’s final moments. The black box will continue to emit signals for days, and it will be an incredible challenge to locate it, as the depth of the Atlantic Ocean can extend down to 22,000+ feet. It’s the perverbial needle in a haystack, but in this scenario, robotic divers are looking for the black box in pitch black water. And there is a ton of ocean surface area to cover. I certainly wish them luck. They will need it.

Now, on to the theories as to why Air France Flight 447 crashed into the Atlantic Ocean. While the exact cause of the crash of AF 447 may never be known, here are a few of the theories I have seen so far:

Lightning Strike in a Severe Storm

Flight 447 was flying in the intertropical convergence zone, an area of the Atlantic Ocean where the northeast trade winds meet the southeast trade winds. The convergence of these two wind patterns is known to cause severe storms and extreme weather. The plane was flying at 35,000 feet, and the storms were topping out at 50,000 feet. There was likely no way to avoid the storm. No way to go over or around it. Apparently, pilots often face severe weather, and they typically have to pick their way through the storm. In a case where electrical malfunctions may have caused systems to go out, it could be that the pilots did not have any reliable data as they made their way through the storm. For example, if the pilots had lost use of their weather radar, finding a safe way through a severe storm could have been extremely difficult and ultimately tragic.

Examining many forums and news site, there are tons of interviews with experienced airline pilots, who claim that lightning was most likely not the primary cause for the crash of Flight 447. It appears that lightning could have played a role, but lightning is likely not the primary culprit in this scenario.

Turbulence: It is possible that Flight AF447 hit severe turbulence in the storm. Updrafts and downdrafts of 100mph were likely present in these storms, and those could prove extremely dangerous in the context of an extreme storm like the one they were flying in. Furthermore, the plane may have encountered several instances of turbulence, and it is even a possibility that some of that turbulence caused minor damage to the interior of the plane.

Other possible weather-related theories are icing, hail and precipitation. If you are interested on more detailed information regarding the weather’s impact on Flight 447, I recommend checking out this site here. Tim’s assessment is excellent.

Other Theories

Okay. Now that the weather-related scenarios are out of the way, new information came out today that the an Argentina-to-Paris Air France flight was delayed on May 27, 2009 due to a bomb threat (here):

The airport safety delayed an Air France flight this evening before departring for Paris immediately after the company received a bomb threat over the phone at the airport of Ezeiza.

The Federal Police, along the Firemen’s direction and the Airport’s Safety proceeded to inspect the plane, that arrived this morning from the French city and, after a brief stop, it was preparing to return.

The routine procedure lasted approximately one hour and a half and, as sources of the airport reported all the passengers are ok and they were not evacuated.

Currently there is no evidence to suggest that Flight AF 447 was the target of a bomb, but it is a strange coincidence that another Air France flight was delayed out of South America due to a bomb threat only a few days before Flight AF 447’s tragic crash.

Conspiracy Theories

Any time a plane crashes, there is a conspiracy theory. I found one conspiracy theory related to Flight 447. As we all know, there were 228 people on board the flight. Early reports say that the passengers represented 32 nationalities. It is thought that one of the passengers was Pedro Luiz de Orleans e Braganca. He was actually Prince Pedro Luiz de Orleans e Braganca, heir to the former Brazilian family that has been out of power since 1889. According to Wikipedia:

He was born 12 January 1983 in Rio de Janeiro and was the son of the Brazilian Prince Antonio and his Belgian wife, née Princess Christine de Ligne. The House of Ligne is one of the oldest and most prominent Wallonian noble families still extant in Belgium. Christine is a niece of former Grand Duke Jean of Luxembourg. Through her, Pedro Luís held a remote place in the line of succession to the throne of Luxembourg.

As his father’s eldest brothers, Luís and Bertrand, are bachelors, it was expected, after his own father, that Pedro would in due time become the head of the Imperial House of Brazil and heir to the defunct Brazilian crown.

In addition to Brazil’s emperors, he was a descendant of Louis Philippe I, King of the French in the male line, and of King John VI of Portugal. He was also related to John Maurice, Prince of Nassau-Siegen, renowned Dutch governor of the Brazilian northeast during the colonial period.

Apparently, Prince Pedro Luis was in line to become the Emporer, though it should be reiterated that his family has been out of power since 1889. It is highly unlikely that this conspiracy theory holds any water, but I thought it would be worth noting due to the Brazilian royalty possibly on board the plane.

I’ll be updating this blog with any new information related to Flight 447, so check back daily.

Air France Flight 447 Vanishes Over Atlantic Ocean

If you know me, you probably know how plane flights freak me out in a bad way. I was not always afraid of flying, but after some odd events involving planes, I now have a mild phobia. I say ‘mild’ because I can still manage to ride on a plane. It’s people like John Madden have a true phobia of planes and flying.

Air France Flight AF 447 Vanishes Over Atlantic Ocean
Air France Flight AF 447 Vanishes Over Atlantic Ocean

I don’t fly very often. Maybe 3-4 times per year. And today I found myself at the airport for a business trip, when all of the sudden a breaking news story appears on the TV at the airport. Air France Flight AF 447 has vanished over the Atlantic Ocean. My nuckles went white, and my heart rate jumped. I was horrified and terrified for those people. Though the search continues, no one is really sure what happened. Air France said the plane was likely struck by lighting (here). Apparently, planes are often struck by lightning, but it is very unusual for a plane to be brought down by a storm. However improbable, it looks like this plane was brought down by a storm. And imagining a plane falling out of the sky and crashing into water is terrifying to me. I can only pray that those people did not suffer.

After doing some research on the event, here are some of the facts that we do know:

  • The flight took off from Rio de Janeiro at 7:30pm local time.
  • The last verbal communication with air traffic control was at at 10:33pm local time.
  • At that time of the last verbal messagem the flight was at 35,000 feet and traveling at 520 miles per hour.
  • The last communication from Flight AF 447 came at 11:14pm by a series of automatic messages indicating it had suffered an electrical-system malfunction.
  • Flight AF 447 was scheduled to arrive at Charles de Gaulle airport at 11:10am local time.
  • The Air France Airbus A330-200 was carrying 216 passengers and 12 crew members.
  • The Airbus A330 sent out several automated signals that its electrical systems had malfuntioned.
  • There was no word from the pilots that the plane was in trouble or in a crisis. No may day message at all.
  • The plane had flown for 4 hours before it hit storms and turbulence.
  • 15 minutes after hitting the storm, the first automated signals were sent regarding the electrical systems malfunctioning.
  • The automated messages were sent to Air France’s maintenance system, but they were not checked for hours – not until Flight 447 failed to radio in on time with air traffic controllers.
  • The plane’s black box recorded may never be found, as it is presumably at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean.
  • Air France said the plane, which was powered with General Electric engines, went into service in April 2005.
  • The plane last underwent maintenance in a hangar in April this year.

According to this news article (here):

Brazilian officials said the plane disappeared over the Atlantic somewhere between a point 186 miles northeast of their coastal city Natal and the Cape Verde islands off Africa. The area is known as the “horse latitudes,” where the tropics of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres mix, sometimes creating violent and unpredictable thunderstorms that can rise to 55,000 feet, higher than commercial jetliners can go.

Even though most of the facts support the theory that the plane crashed into the Atlantic Ocean, many experts are wondering how a plane that is built to withstand storms with a very experienced pilot, who has clocked over 11,000 flying hours, could be taken down by a storm. Air France chief executive Pierre-Henri Gourgeon said, “A completely unexpected situation occurred on board the aircraft. Lightning alone is not enough to explain the loss of this plane, and turbulence alone is not enough. It is always a combination of factors.” That statement completely freaks me out.

What happened up there? This was a modern plane, built to withstand heavy storms and violent turbulence. The flight crew was very experienced. There was no distress signal. Lightning strikes planes about once a year, but the electricity typically travels along the plane’s exterior. Passengers are not affected by this occurrence. One AP report claimed that cabin pressure was lost. Maybe an electrical problem shut off the air compressors on the plane. The theories continue, but something happened up there. And if the black box is sitting at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean, we may never know what caused this horrific tragedy.

My thoughts and prayers go out to the families of those lost in this tragic event.